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Oracle (ORCL) earnings: the option-implied expected move
ORCL reports on 8 September 2026. Options on the 11 September 2026 expiry are pricing a move of 17.32%: an expected-move band of $124.68 to $176.93 against a spot of $150.80.
AS OF 10 AUGUST 2026 · SOURCE: GAMBIT · ORCL · SPOT $150.80 · CURRENT VALUES IN THE TERMINAL ↗
ORCL · the print
| Spot | $150.80 |
|---|---|
| Report date | |
| Session | not confirmed |
| Date confirmed by company | No, estimated |
| Implied move | 17.32% |
| Expected-move band (spot centred) | $124.68 to $176.93 |
| Straddle break-evens at expiry | $123.88 to $176.12 |
| Expected move in dollars | $26.12 |
| ATM straddle price | $26.12 |
| ATM strike | $150.00 |
| ATM implied volatility | 75.3% |
| Expiry used | |
| Days to expiry | 31 |
The arithmetic
Where 17.32% comes from
An earnings report is a scheduled shock. Nobody knows the direction, but the options market prices the size, and the cleanest way to read that price is the at-the-money straddle.
Step one: pick the contract that spans the event. ORCL reports on 8 September 2026. The first listed expiry after that date is 11 September 2026, 31 days out, so that is the expiry used here. An expiry that lands before the report would price everything except the thing you care about.
Step two: buy both sides at the money. With ORCL trading at $150.80, the nearest strike is $150.00. Owning the $150.00 call and the $150.00 put together (the straddle) costs $26.12 per share. That position does not care which way ORCL goes; it only cares how far.
Step three: divide by spot. $26.12 ÷ $150.80 = 17.32%. That is the implied move: the percentage travel the market is charging for, in either direction, by 11 September 2026.
Step four: read it as a band, and mind which band. Spot minus the straddle is $124.68 and spot plus the straddle is $176.93. That is the expected-move band, centred on the current price so it can be compared across names. The straddle itself breaks even at expiry measured from its $150.00 strike, at $123.88 and $176.12 before costs. The two coincide only when spot sits exactly on the strike, which here it does not.
And the volatility number. 75.3% is the front expiry's annualised implied volatility. It is a related quantity rather than the same one: it covers the whole remaining term, which holds ordinary session variance either side of the event as well as the event itself, while the 17.32% expresses the total premium in plain price units. Use the percentage move to compare ORCL against another company.
The band is a price, not a forecast, and not a probability. A straddle premium carries volatility risk premium, skew, rates and whatever supply and demand did to it, so it is a market-priced measure of event uncertainty rather than calibrated odds. It says nothing about direction and nothing that binds the tape. Realised moves land outside these bands regularly, which is precisely what the seller is paid for.
Comparable prints
Priced for a similar move
Names on the same calendar whose implied move is closest to ORCL's 17.32%:
Questions
What is ORCL's implied move for earnings?
17.32%. With ORCL at $150.80, the at-the-money straddle expiring 11 September 2026 costs $26.12, which is 17.32% of spot. That gives an expected-move band of $124.68 to $176.93 centred on spot. The straddle itself breaks even at expiry at $123.88 and $176.12, measured from the $150.00 strike, before costs.
When does ORCL report earnings?
8 September 2026, session not yet confirmed. The date is an estimate, not yet confirmed by the company.
What does 75.3% implied volatility mean for ORCL?
That is the annualised at-the-money implied volatility on the 11 September 2026 expiry, 31 days out. Annualising a single overnight event produces a large number; the comparable figure across names is the 17.32% implied move.
Keep going
Around the print
The expected move is what is priced; dealer positioning is how the tape behaves while it gets there.